When, not if, to leave Iraq

Call it a timetable, phased withdrawal or (our favorite) "joint aspirational time horizons." The Iraq debate has shifted to when - not if - on the subject of a troop pullout.

The big winner in this shift must be Sen. Barack Obama. His quickie Mideast tour put the presumptive Democratic nominee in sync with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who said he now favors a U.S. troop departure on roughly the same 16-month time frame that Obama suggests.

Even the White House got in the act by deploying the Bush-speak term "time horizons." The presumptive GOP nominee John McCain sidestepped the remarkable shift by denouncing, yet again, Obama's qualifications as a military leader.

The political parrying can't obscure what's happening. The Iraqi leadership is prepared for a U.S. exit. Daily life has stabilized, a fragile truce exists among warring factions, and Al Qaeda rebels aren't gaining ground. Any of these factors could change and delay a withdrawal, as worried U.S. military leaders cautiously suggest.

But the whispers and hints are gone, replaced by statements. Credit a stabilized Iraq or the pressures of a presidential race, but the leave-taking has begun.

For Obama, the past week was a gift. Challenged by McCain to prove his foreign-policy chops, Obama could have sleepwalked through a war-zone junket. But Iraqi leader al-Maliki essentially embraced his position for a withdrawal by the end of 2010. Obama's visit to Afghanistan allowed him to repeat a pledge to upgrade U.S. military numbers there to face an ascendent terrorist threat.

McCain's team must wonder what hit them. The senator found his stay-the-course message on Iraq disowned by nearly everyone. He was left to rail against Obama's inexperience and past vote against extra troops for Iraq, which McCain credits for today's relative peace.

Talk of a withdrawal timetable may neutralize the hot topic of Iraq in the presidential race. But that's only a short-run effect. The bigger, more important result may be an end to a disastrous chapter in the history of two countries.